President Donald Trump’s trade policies have significantly impacted U.S. whiskey makers, prompting major retailers in Canada to remove American liquor from their shelves. Amidst this crisis, investor Brian Rosen offers a different perspective, suggesting that tariffs may unintentionally benefit small, American whiskey brands.

Rosen, founder and general partner at InvestBev, argues that while Canadian tariffs seem detrimental, they could make foreign whiskies—particularly from Japan, Ireland, Scotland, and Canada—appear more expensive compared to American whiskey, enhancing the latter’s appeal to consumers. This could be a silver lining for many smaller whiskey producers, allowing them to maintain their prices while competing against international brands that may see their costs rise.

InvestBev, which holds a diverse portfolio of alcohol brands, strategically increased exports following Trump’s election in 2024 to avoid the brunt of the tariffs. Rosen indicates that this foresight placed InvestBev in a favorable position within the market.

However, it’s important to note that while larger players like Diageo and Pernod Ricard express grave concerns about potential job losses and decreased profitability due to tariffs, smaller distilleries often don’t have the same level of international exposure. According to Rosen, only a small fraction of Kentucky bourbon is exported, suggesting that domestic-focused distillers may not be hit as hard by these international market fluctuations.

Despite these potential benefits outlined by Rosen, a broader economic landscape reveals challenges for small U.S. whiskey producers. The Distilled Spirits Council has reported a record increase in U.S. spirits exports in 2024, but ongoing trade disputes create uncertainty, hindering growth opportunities for many distillers.

Many small distilleries are actively seeking exemptions from tariffs, indicating their concerns about rising costs for imported goods used in production. This reflects a wider reality wherein tariffs are complicating the supply chain for U.S. businesses, affecting both large corporations and small-scale producers.

As the trade environment evolves, the impact of tariffs will continue to be a contentious issue within the whiskey industry, making Rosen’s contrarian view both intriguing and indicative of the complexity of U.S. trade policies.