As America faces a new political landscape following Donald Trump’s re-election, the craft beer industry is bracing for potential turbulence. With Trump likely to have both a Republican Senate and possibly a Republican House, he seems poised to advance his business-friendly agenda.

Craft brewers, who have recently endured significant challenges—such as declines in both production and sales—are particularly apprehensive. The Brewers Association reported that in 2023, U.S. beer production fell by 5.1%, with craft beer production decreasing by 1%. The ongoing uncertainties in consumer behavior, coupled with market pressures like tariffs and inflation, have contributed to these declines, pushing some smaller breweries toward closure.

The implications of Trump’s economic policies, especially his stance on international trade, are a significant source of anxiety. During his first presidency, Trump was known for imposing tariffs on imported goods, which had adverse effects on the craft beer sector. A 10% tariff on aluminum imports in 2018, for instance, was said to have caused price hikes and job losses within the industry.

Recent communications from the Brewers Association highlighted concerns about the potential for increased tariffs and their impact on operational costs, particularly for materials like aluminum, which are crucial for canning beer. Additionally, tax-related issues loom, such as the impending expiration of a 20% deduction for pass-through entities, which might put further financial strain on craft breweries.

Another worrying factor is the likelihood of funding cuts to vital federal agencies like the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau and the USDA Agriculture Research Service. Such reductions could hinder regulatory processes that are essential for beer production, including the approval of new labels and the development of brewing ingredients.

Overall, the craft beer industry is facing an uncertain future, with worries that the challenges it has recently encountered may be exacerbated under a second Trump administration. As these breweries navigate this complex terrain, they remain vigilant about the potential fallout from new economic policies and trade regulations.