Wine consumption in the European Union (EU) is expected to continue its downward trend over the next decade, according to the European Commission’s EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-35. The report anticipates a decline of 0.9% annually, predicting that per capita wine consumption will decrease to approximately 19.3 liters by 2035. This represents a 9% reduction from levels observed between 2021 and 2025, driven by various factors.

Key drivers for this decline include growing health concerns among consumers, changing drinking habits, and increasing competition from a wider range of beverages. The report notes that younger generations are increasingly opting for lower alcohol options, contributing to the overall decrease in wine consumption.

While the decline is not uniform across all EU member states, countries traditionally known for high wine consumption, such as France and Germany, are experiencing some of the most significant reductions. Additionally, sales of "wine-based drinks," including no- and low-alcohol options, are rising, although these products are still expected to account for a small portion of the market.

The report highlights that the EU’s wine production may also decrease by about 0.5% per year over the next decade, resulting in an output of approximately 138 million hectoliters. Factors contributing to this decline include a projected yearly reduction of 0.6% in vineyard areas, assuming stable weather and yields.

Winemakers throughout the EU are facing a surplus of wine, prompting calls for measures to manage vineyard reductions in countries like France and Germany. The European Parliament and the European Council have reached preliminary agreements to implement support measures for the industry, including financial assistance for vine uprooting initiatives.

Furthermore, the report warns that the EU’s wine export growth is at risk due to decreasing shipments to key markets such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Although there is rising demand in markets like Latin America and Africa, it is unlikely to offset the declines experienced in traditional markets. Overall, EU wine exports are projected to drop by 0.6% annually from 2025 to 2035, with imports also expected to see a decrease of 1.9% each year.