Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) report has highlighted a notable divide in the wine industry. The data shows a stark contrast in performance between successful and struggling wineries, revealing that this disparity is driven by strategic outlook rather than market conditions.

In 2025, high-performing wineries achieved a remarkable 22% revenue growth, while their lower-performing counterparts experienced a 13% decline. The median winery found itself stagnant, with no growth at all. This widening gap raises the question of what differentiates thriving wineries from those that are struggling.

According to Rob McMillan, EVP and founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s wine division, the key difference lies in their focus. Successful wineries concentrate on outward relationships, customer engagement, and brand building, whereas struggling ones focus primarily on internal costs and operational efficiencies. This fundamental shift in mindset impacts all aspects of business strategies, including pricing, event coordination, and marketing.

Price strategies illustrate this gap further. High-performing wineries are more inclined to increase their prices, with a focus on maintaining perceived value, while lower-performing brands often resort to steep discounts, communicating a sense of decline to premium buyers. Regulatory shifts in tasting fees have compounded the problem for those in the lower tier, with many using price cuts as a compensatory strategy without a clear plan for brand positioning.

Another aspect of concern is the decreasing foot traffic in tasting rooms, which has seen a consistent decline of about 2% year over year. Lower-performing wineries tend to overspend on renovations in hopes of attracting visitors, yet this approach does not address the core issues. The once-reliable tasting room model for attracting customers is evolving as consumers shift their preferences.

Wine clubs, which represent a significant revenue stream, show stagnation with membership growth flatlining and attrition rates high. The challenge is compounded by demographic shifts, as older, more loyal members cycle out, and younger members show less loyalty. The profitability remains a critical issue; nearly half of wineries report not being profitable, even with rising bottle prices.

Looking ahead, the wine industry faces increased competition, with the number of U.S. wineries ballooning from about 7,500 in 2019 to 11,000 in 2026. As such, advertising and new customer engagement strategies are becoming essential.

McMillan predicts that the industry could experience no growth conditions by 2027 or 2028, following a potential consolidation phase. Innovative strategies, such as virtual tastings and direct engagement with customers beyond traditional tasting rooms, could lead the way forward.

In summary, the ongoing transformations in the wine industry reflect a need for wineries to adapt to contemporary consumer behaviors while diversifying their revenue strategies. This pivot is crucial for achieving not just survival, but thriving in an increasingly complex marketplace.

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